AI · resolved market
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb058c26f1a4e632e8717bbf9ad874fb09c3607b40c78e411198fd1bac17038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 73c | 788.4$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 24c | 672.15$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.29 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 57c | 491$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.81 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 32c | 367$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.56 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked No | 69c | 233.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked No | 43c | 233.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 40c | 223.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 57c | 204.66$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 68c | 203.97$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed No | 35c | 185.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 70c | 146.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 108.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 24c | 76.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 24c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…87d9backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 18c | 57.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 24c | 56.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f52…9fbabacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked No | 40c | 49.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 57c | 35.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed Yes | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed No | 61c | 24.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 49c | 24.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…bffebacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…08ccbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.