AI · resolved market
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a410fefe79447cf2bc106107a7c1d95e09ce3951fb004d0c95fecfea8899203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 9c | 2,475$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.81 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,707$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.45 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 17c | 1,451$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.64 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,334$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 38c | 1,015$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.62 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…36d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 885.12$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.9 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 7c | 545.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 496.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 12c | 388.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 206.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 10c | 203$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 188.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 13c | 175.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 156.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 156.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 76c | 152.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 146.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…38cfbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 70c | 126.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8841…d32cbacked No | 80c | 125.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…2640backed Yes | 42c | 118.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 25c | 106.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 14c | 105.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7b…cd98backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 92.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 88.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 20c | 77.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 26c | 76.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 27c | 44.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 76c | 32.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed Yes | 44c | 28.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 51c | 24.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 21.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.