F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54b43c12303b1701e5dfa816a83e7785f4695078e0c8c9ce971d5c1eebb18bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 13c | 5,500$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 31c | 1,549$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.29 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…d134backed Yes | 15c | 1,252$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.11 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 14c | 1,035$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 41c | 768.56$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…43e5backed Yes | 14c | 720$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…e385backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed No | 76c | 379.5$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 51c | 338.93$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 70c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 15c | 165.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…7b14backed Yes | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 52c | 157.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +106%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…ed5abacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked Yes | 19c | 133.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed No | 54c | 125$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 110.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 31c | 102.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…ddc6backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Italian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will George Russell win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.