F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the Italian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8e83c78f395da4baca6666063281a63b6b10a50a400a753116ea2b38d833426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 19c | 4,100$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.89 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 77c | 1,680$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.32 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 22c | 1,247$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Yes | 6c | 1,157$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d1…8eb2backed Yes | 5c | 1,043$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…d134backed Yes | 20c | 932.2$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…28a0backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…f2acbacked Yes | 10c | 399.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…aca8backed Yes | 25c | 380$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 4c | 345.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 74c | 340$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…9516backed Yes | 17c | 326.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked Yes | 10c | 276.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 74c | 229.5$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…4e32backed Yes | 23c | 214.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 25c | 184$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 77c | 115.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…c107backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…47dcbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed No | 75c | 96.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…fbd1backed Yes | 26c | 88.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…8534backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 28c | 70.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9988…b7c6backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…ea2cbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac5…369cbacked Yes | 23c | 53.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…7affbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen win the Italian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Italian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will George Russell win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.