F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the Italian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f0dfac9b89d0caef4b14acb445f7048736e0dfc79f6876996fc548835a7a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Yes | 64c | 21,387$13,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,672.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…406abacked No | 36c | 21,000$7,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,429.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 55c | 4,361$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.01 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 48c | 2,891$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +106%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 55c | 2,874$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70a…8482backed Yes | 47c | 2,174$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 56c | 1,764$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.04 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 50c | 1,246$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…43e5backed Yes | 46c | 1,229$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 63c | 1,109$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 53c | 709.39$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.42 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 62c | 600$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.71 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 47c | 516.98$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 33c | 500$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…14a4backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…65b0backed Yes | 37c | 492.28$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed No | 37c | 451.29$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 36c | 413.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.96 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked No | 39c | 380.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Yes | 43c | 365.93$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…e0e8backed Yes | 63c | 333$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 47c | 279.09$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 51c | 261.65$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…d134backed Yes | 55c | 239.16$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 66c | 228.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Yes | 65c | 220.26$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 63c | 173.16$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 33c | 164.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…e385backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…1c90backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 52c | 142$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 44c | 122.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…4e32backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 44c | 114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff5…4ceebacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…f2acbacked No | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 63c | 102.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2825…accebacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Yes | 49c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…aa17backed Yes | 64c | 89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0a…6758backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…9516backed Yes | 43c | 81.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 63c | 67.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…3d11backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…8534backed Yes | 46c | 64.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…ab24backed No | 58c | 64.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…ed5abacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…3e7cbacked No | 38c | 62.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…d35fbacked Yes | 47c | 60.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…e466backed Yes | 46c | 58.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…5d62backed No | 56c | 53.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 58c | 48.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe213…138ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…9aeebacked No | 38c | 40.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +455.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 34.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…1135backed Yes | 44c | 34.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb83…033bbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…3f21backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…946cbacked Yes | 66c | 28.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…2c38backed Yes | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6247…bd9dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd718…13b9backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…de10backed Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efa…c133backed Yes | 62c | 20.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the Italian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Italian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will George Russell win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.