F1 · resolved market
Will Charles Leclerc win the Italian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70e05e422a2e7520d8da618a71c70abc6a6b7e26d9e67c4e8eed8d11ba58273
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 6c | 3,723$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +106%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 11c | 2,350$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.13 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 10c | 1,980$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 12c | 1,175$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.7 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…d134backed Yes | 37c | 868.75$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.56 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d1…8eb2backed Yes | 21c | 481.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…ed5abacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 6c | 309.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…9aeebacked Yes | 5c | 302.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +455.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…2f6bbacked Yes | 57c | 282.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.08 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…09d3backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…8534backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 219.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.05 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 21c | 210$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.3 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2825…accebacked Yes | 20c | 170$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 21c | 169.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…9516backed Yes | 35c | 157.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 19c | 155.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd432…7b82backed Yes | 58c | 119.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…8536backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…df69backed Yes | 58c | 55.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…ddc6backed Yes | 58c | 51.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…9d14backed Yes | 58c | 36.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe667…f60fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…de10backed Yes | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Italian Grand Prix?this page
- Will George Russell win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.