AI · resolved market
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a43c9ddeef87245a713570da886d5637666b4a3dba886162df4b271978ee5f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 18c | 4,994$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.66 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,576$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 4c | 3,152$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,409$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,991$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…36d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,844$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 8c | 1,769$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 11c | 1,695$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.73 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 15c | 1,508$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.54 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 13c | 846.92$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 819.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 3c | 800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 3c | 749.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 555$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 16c | 530$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 15c | 453.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…f813backed Yes | 11c | 431.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed Yes | 21c | 402.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 391.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 12c | 390.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 386$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 21c | 336.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed No | 54c | 321.42$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.64 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 23c | 299.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…c548backed Yes | 4c | 278.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 47c | 249.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 12c | 249.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 27c | 228.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 219.22$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 12c | 215.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed Yes | 25c | 199.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 171.44$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 168.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…a647backed Yes | 30c | 165.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 17c | 149.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 8c | 146$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 134.06$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 15c | 127.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…4d17backed Yes | 17c | 117.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…2d12backed Yes | 22c | 112.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…d2f3backed Yes | 9c | 108.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 36c | 102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 87.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…e116backed Yes | 22c | 84.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…0d2abacked Yes | 46c | 78.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 14c | 75.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d4…36fcbacked Yes | 22c | 75.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…8766backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51d…25e1backed Yes | 44c | 59.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 57c | 51.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…e4b0backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…d9b4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacaf…8803backed Yes | 32c | 49.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 43c | 46.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 46.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…eab4backed Yes | 37c | 42.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 39c | 40.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…e067backed Yes | 38c | 39.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 32c | 38.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 78c | 35.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 34.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 78c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…e1a0backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 77c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a0…c890backed No | 79c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 75c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.