AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06a7a20c1c36f9f894d759237644e2dd4b446c048f2bfda6d8bc2b99313002c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafeb…70c2backed Yes | 28c | 11,040$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,091.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…32c0backed No | 72c | 4,000$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…e34cbacked No | 72c | 3,900$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a15…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 3,140$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 4c | 2,316$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,943$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,926$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 1,613$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 6c | 1,294$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,173$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…53e8backed Yes | 9c | 985$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 925.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf4…6137backed Yes | 9c | 886$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 3c | 869.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…2b73backed Yes | 9c | 859$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…71c4backed Yes | 9c | 775$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 4c | 724.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 604.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 2c | 582.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 12c | 540$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 3c | 530.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c11…ef93backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…12dfbacked Yes | 5c | 460.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc19…00bdbacked Yes | 7c | 460.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 4c | 450$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 10c | 427.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…089fbacked Yes | 4c | 427$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 420$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 4c | 386.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 334.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 334$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed Yes | 19c | 317.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 12c | 316.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 238.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…2d12backed Yes | 6c | 233.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…1ed5backed Yes | 11c | 226.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 7c | 214.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 136.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…1397backed Yes | 16c | 125.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 101.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 15c | 88.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed Yes | 15c | 88.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 30.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.