Us Politics · resolved market
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cac51e3b1e29d5a0291af5b3615c364ece1c06f89cd4ea63fe532aceb4c54f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 18c | 884.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.98 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 24c | 712.79$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 39c | 439.18$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.32 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 39c | 359.32$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.47 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 340.76$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…7f0fbacked No | 63c | 324.15$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 20c | 289.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 72c | 262.02$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 16c | 240$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed No | 71c | 210.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed No | 48c | 206.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked No | 60c | 199.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 162$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d61…fba4backed Yes | 33c | 140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 27c | 139.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 128.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 26c | 117.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…e126backed No | 69c | 117.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…7fb8backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb31…5025backed Yes | 67c | 90.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 17c | 90.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed No | 62c | 81.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…8ba1backed Yes | 40c | 77.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 61c | 71.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5013…807ebacked Yes | 40c | 62.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…447cbacked No | 71c | 62.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…f3fabacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a0…d98bbacked Yes | 44c | 44.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c50…3612backed No | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe540…bfcfbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…300cbacked No | 78c | 38.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…1666backed No | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…e343backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…673bbacked No | 76c | 27.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…c03ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f6…52b1backed No | 74c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…08a5backed No | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.