Earnings · resolved market
Will Monster Beverage (MNST) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b2ed639b98ab9f1b9428062898c2c0ff14ca55277c35d48984db86749e9557d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,518$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 26c | 2,753$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.46per pick | 32cpaid | +681.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 16c | 2,227$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.33 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 32c | 1,540$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.73 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 40c | 946.56$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.23 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 61c | 328.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…017abacked No | 35c | 286.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 21c | 272.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…a3b1backed Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 61c | 254.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed No | 27c | 224.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 23c | 194.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…55b0backed Yes | 58c | 170$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 61c | 164.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…4fb7backed No | 32c | 158.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 155.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 27c | 150.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 76c | 148.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf602…964ebacked No | 75c | 116$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 103.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab8…590fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 26c | 99.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…739ebacked Yes | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 37c | 87.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed Yes | 60c | 87.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 59c | 84.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 61c | 83.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 43c | 72.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 60c | 66.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…12efbacked Yes | 65c | 66.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 63c | 63.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…e68cbacked Yes | 53c | 51.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ac…3eeebacked No | 74c | 50.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…982abacked No | 74c | 48.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…9226backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce88…7423backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed No | 29c | 35.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…c8ccbacked No | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…607cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…aa1fbacked Yes | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 77cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…b0febacked Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 57c | 22.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…d8cdbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…a52cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…0013backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…8336backed Yes | 79c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.