Earnings · resolved market
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93dfab1acd865840a4ef6c1b3525a210978cb1ed2bd3f9b2f3ca7132726ab092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,701 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa11…9c49backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 16c | 1,299$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.87 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…9297backed Yes | 79c | 800.45$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 69c | 434.24$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 19c | 339.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 22c | 333.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.13 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 71c | 279$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 273$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.35 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 14c | 239$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.69 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 10c | 187.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 11c | 146.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.81 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 14c | 141.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.63 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 78c | 103.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…0bfcbacked Yes | 70c | 44.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 71c | 36.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…8249backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 60c | 27.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2e0dbacked No | 75c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.