TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Real Madrid CFof FC Bayern München, Real Madrid CF
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$495,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$481,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $495,881 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 380 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee67…ef38backed FC Bayern München25c357,063$90,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,334.16048.3%29 W · 31 L+10.6wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+68.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Real Madrid CF74c86,715$63,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,731.361,95944.1%863 W · 1,096 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9032…8717backed Real Madrid CF76c83,776$63,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,106.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Real Madrid CF75c59,691$44,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,922.75944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Real Madrid CF73c40,618$29,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,966.862955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Real Madrid CF75c18,587$14,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,573.155265.4%34 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Real Madrid CF75c11,919$8,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,979.621330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Real Madrid CF74c11,812$8,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024.6559441.8%248 W · 346 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Real Madrid CF74c9,982$7,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.585263.5%33 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7434…2ff4backed FC Bayern München36c5,368$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.244325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed FC Bayern München24c4,600$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d25…82a7backed FC Bayern München25c4,576$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked FC Bayern München36c4,551$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.041136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Real Madrid CF65c4,509$2,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.816657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked FC Bayern München24c4,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9805630.4%17 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed FC Bayern München23c3,941$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.352462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbad…9e4bbacked FC Bayern München23c3,578$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.01757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Real Madrid CF74c3,329$2,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.68259.8%49 W · 33 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Real Madrid CF74c3,327$2,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.1510852.8%57 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Real Madrid CF74c3,327$2,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.1510648.1%51 W · 55 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Real Madrid CF75c3,212$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.412944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Real Madrid CF75c3,004$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.348243.9%36 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed FC Bayern München22c2,856$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.862119%4 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Real Madrid CF74c2,698$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.892665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Real Madrid CF73c2,672$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.4213548.9%66 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed FC Bayern München24c2,600$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.6241553%220 W · 195 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Real Madrid CF76c2,584$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.57560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked FC Bayern München70c2,573$1,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,794.841266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd0…93acbacked FC Bayern München23c2,528$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.341323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked FC Bayern München26c2,389$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.141330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked FC Bayern München23c2,351$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.88252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed FC Bayern München24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f3…3a31backed FC Bayern München22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4402334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Real Madrid CF75c1,766$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.714850%24 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Real Madrid CF73c1,729$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.85957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed FC Bayern München28c1,675$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.75334%18 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2211…ed34backed Real Madrid CF76c1,535$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e1…272fbacked Real Madrid CF76c1,516$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50eb…7a5cbacked Real Madrid CF76c1,492$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d4…3983backed FC Bayern München22c1,453$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.74825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Real Madrid CF74c1,415$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.9329445.9%135 W · 159 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Real Madrid CF76c1,354$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.9928543.9%125 W · 160 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Real Madrid CF74c1,335$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.633762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked FC Bayern München23c1,327$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab0e…4393backed Real Madrid CF77c1,283$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.09650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Real Madrid CF78c1,265$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.331090%9 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick62cpaid+51.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Real Madrid CF60c1,206$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.961,48740.3%599 W · 888 L-7.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…edcabacked Real Madrid CF70c1,197$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.2714642.5%62 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d13…643cbacked Real Madrid CF77c1,146$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.33268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+17.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked FC Bayern München23c1,111$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.535749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b79…b838backed FC Bayern München22c1,103$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Real Madrid CF74c1,055$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.212948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Real Madrid CF70c1,013$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Real Madrid CF74c1,000$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.385362.3%33 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed FC Bayern München25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503129%9 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-27%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed FC Bayern München23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Real Madrid CF74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x414f…21afbacked FC Bayern München23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed FC Bayern München24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ffb…b2f8backed FC Bayern München23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6eb…8761backed FC Bayern München25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed FC Bayern München25c999.94$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.991216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-54.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked FC Bayern München25c955$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.754242.9%18 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+109.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Real Madrid CF75c922.49$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.7813246.2%61 W · 71 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Real Madrid CF74c919.27$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.884717%8 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Real Madrid CF75c917.32$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.424738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb960…8c47backed FC Bayern München23c869.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed FC Bayern München24c844.36$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.652433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked FC Bayern München27c812.56$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.053748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0db…56d5backed Real Madrid CF74c798.16$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.524156.1%23 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed FC Bayern München24c795.33$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.885228.8%15 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed Real Madrid CF73c750$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Real Madrid CF78c725.99$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.722878.6%22 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Real Madrid CF74c714.6$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.162075%15 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Real Madrid CF74c684.8$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.731172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Real Madrid CF74c684.6$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.662766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Real Madrid CF73c669.92$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.246352.4%33 W · 30 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Real Madrid CF74c667.67$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.747058.6%41 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Real Madrid CF74c665.14$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.94977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7335…dd65backed Real Madrid CF74c665.11$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-59.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67c3…d11dbacked Real Madrid CF74c651.83$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.48944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Real Madrid CF77c613.49$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.11553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Real Madrid CF34c583.39$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.251729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Real Madrid CF78c577.11$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.073548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x471c…3b43backed Real Madrid CF80c562.51$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1134235.7%15 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked FC Bayern München22c562.39$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.739840.8%40 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc99f…43c5backed Real Madrid CF74c532.11$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.351450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Real Madrid CF74c528.69$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.837652.6%40 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Real Madrid CF76c509.17$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.23360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+45.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Real Madrid CF76c499.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205048%24 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed FC Bayern München24c477.2$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.531637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed FC Bayern München22c477.16$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.53128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Real Madrid CF73c468.57$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.291464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Real Madrid CF73c458.31$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.531866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Real Madrid CF77c448.27$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.12864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd604…bd53backed FC Bayern München23c432.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dda…c9e0backed FC Bayern München69c428.2$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.371533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Real Madrid CF74c425.37$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.353063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1bd9…c7f1backed FC Bayern München22c411.85$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6140%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked FC Bayern München25c405.88$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.473930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.