Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ec34bb15e2daa0e1d7c9d84f45267a8c8f46e145a0db60369696b5b48016ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof Real Madrid CF, FC Bayern München
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Madrid CF | 2c | 50,834$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.69 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 6,530$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.67 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f28…266ebacked FC Bayern München | 80c | 5,165$4,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.06 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…ae44backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 4,762$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Real Madrid CF | 18c | 3,602$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.74 | 594 | 41.8%248 W · 346 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…8717backed Real Madrid CF | 2c | 2,234$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Real Madrid CF | 17c | 1,692$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.72 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 1,193$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.99 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Real Madrid CF | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Real Madrid CF | 19c | 994.71$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 881 | 37.7%332 W · 549 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked Real Madrid CF | 19c | 843.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…5e23backed Real Madrid CF | 19c | 779.85$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 639.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Real Madrid CF | 10c | 451.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Real Madrid CF | 18c | 423.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 994 | 35%348 W · 646 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 419.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Real Madrid CF | 12c | 378.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…ebcebacked Real Madrid CF | 20c | 333.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf4…3d38backed Real Madrid CF | 18c | 327.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…12c1backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 309.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Real Madrid CF | 14c | 307.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Real Madrid CF | 18c | 216.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 591 | 36.5%216 W · 375 L | -30.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 195.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…1c2cbacked Real Madrid CF | 18c | 194.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Real Madrid CF | 16c | 176.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 167.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Real Madrid CF | 20c | 166.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…d01cbacked Real Madrid CF | 19c | 150.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…521bbacked Real Madrid CF | 18c | 146.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Real Madrid CF | 15c | 124.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed FC Bayern München | 80c | 121.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Real Madrid CF | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ed…85fcbacked Real Madrid CF | 17c | 112.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…ade9backed Real Madrid CF | 16c | 105.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Real Madrid CF | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…9d86backed Real Madrid CF | 19c | 82.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Real Madrid CF | 19c | 76.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Real Madrid CF | 19c | 71.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 71.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Real Madrid CF | 19c | 64.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked Real Madrid CF | 19c | 59.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed FC Bayern München | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.