Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81cf0c4544fb1427d896f44b904acd8b44480ea003a2a31d368f04af93130583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49f…b0f0backed Under | 12c | 15,120$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 11c | 12,237$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.84 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 9,090$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.43 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 8,770$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.64 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 10c | 5,197$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.15 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 11c | 3,446$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 11c | 1,556$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.03 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…65fabacked Under | 18c | 1,100$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 11c | 698.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…d1b6backed Under | 26c | 694.72$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 79c | 619.52$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 19c | 504.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…714cbacked Under | 11c | 483.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Under | 11c | 430.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 132 | 34.1%45 W · 87 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…1e3dbacked Under | 11c | 430.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…35ccbacked Under | 16c | 427.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 10c | 395.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 318 | 47.5%151 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 25c | 365.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 9c | 360.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cb…5f9fbacked Over | 80c | 353.19$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 28c | 338.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Over | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Under | 12c | 276.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…95fabacked Under | 28c | 276.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 26c | 264.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…bad3backed Under | 12c | 260.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…779dbacked Under | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 19c | 227.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Under | 18c | 225$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 12c | 197.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…37c4backed Over | 78c | 197.36$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945c…a489backed Under | 21c | 197.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 15c | 189.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…b21ebacked Under | 11c | 189.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Under | 13c | 182.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 10c | 173.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 170 | 45.9%78 W · 92 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…c159backed Under | 11c | 172.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…540dbacked Under | 10c | 163.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 19c | 159.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 20c | 152.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 19c | 151.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Under | 10c | 145.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 19c | 143.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 19c | 142.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…2ed6backed Under | 10c | 142.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…0f86backed Over | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Over | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b67…525dbacked Under | 11c | 123.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Under | 25c | 114.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 74c | 113.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 19c | 105.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 76c | 98.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 14c | 97.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…3d48backed Under | 25c | 91.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 20c | 90.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Under | 19c | 80.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 16c | 73.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Under | 20c | 66.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 75c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…84d1backed Over | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Under | 27c | 54.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 73c | 53.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 65cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Over | 78c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…8c08backed Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.