Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f748d253bfbeaa59a6b196c7bd834a35a3acf55c3eceb9639bee9af7659c295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof Real Madrid CF, FC Bayern München
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 10,791$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.21 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Real Madrid CF | 5c | 3,833$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.98 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 1,367$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…94fbbacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 928.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Real Madrid CF | 6c | 786.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Real Madrid CF | 5c | 722.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Real Madrid CF | 9c | 437.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Real Madrid CF | 9c | 367.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Real Madrid CF | 5c | 349.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 299.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 286.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 249.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Real Madrid CF | 5c | 223.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…714cbacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 207.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 188.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b9…6d9dbacked Real Madrid CF | 9c | 187.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 164.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 135.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…f879backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 127.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…610abacked Real Madrid CF | 9c | 113.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.