Champions League · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2743a5354337a05a947eff42dffdd543935176ace7879c590df0b1d30f244f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madrid CFof FC Bayern München, Real Madrid CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $402,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $428,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $402,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…ef38backed FC Bayern München | 12c | 349,985$42,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,998.09 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +10.6wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked FC Bayern München | 14c | 2,471$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed FC Bayern München | 14c | 1,289$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.71 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…0687backed FC Bayern München | 38c | 1,013$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Real Madrid CF | 74c | 998.37$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.91 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Bayern München | 17c | 786.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 614 | 37.5%230 W · 384 L | -27.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Real Madrid CF | 63c | 608.41$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.11 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Real Madrid CF | 75c | 499.99$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked FC Bayern München | 12c | 473.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked FC Bayern München | 14c | 399.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Bayern München | 11c | 272.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 968 | 37.4%362 W · 606 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Bayern München | 12c | 257.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 435 | 37.9%165 W · 270 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked FC Bayern München | 12c | 244.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed FC Bayern München | 12c | 237.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed FC Bayern München | 7c | 208.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 214 | 16.8%36 W · 178 L | -38.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München | 17c | 170.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Bayern München | 11c | 130.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,071 | 34.8%373 W · 698 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed FC Bayern München | 37c | 128.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…610abacked FC Bayern München | 12c | 123.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked FC Bayern München | 13c | 108.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89e…6a30backed FC Bayern München | 10c | 107.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed FC Bayern München | 13c | 105.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked FC Bayern München | 14c | 104.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed FC Bayern München | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed FC Bayern München | 13c | 97.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 183 | 34.4%63 W · 120 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c62…44b4backed FC Bayern München | 11c | 97.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed FC Bayern München | 16c | 97.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -89%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…b4c8backed FC Bayern München | 12c | 94.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Real Madrid CF | 80c | 56.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…19d3backed FC Bayern München | 26c | 56.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked FC Bayern München | 32c | 53.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Real Madrid CF | 64c | 48.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked FC Bayern München | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Real Madrid CF | 72c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.