South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1a450a5f51307180d2bec2ef3e6bb38623c127e613a160489b5430c1bc7fa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 7c | 5,100$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.97 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 2,331$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.83 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,148$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.89 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 34c | 1,958$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.49 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 7c | 1,025$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,021$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…4da1backed Yes | 28c | 769.01$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 75c | 751.36$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.87 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 8c | 580.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes | 9c | 546.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 6c | 529.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…7705backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 481.41$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 459.41$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 8c | 361$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 49c | 349.73$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 7c | 299.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked No | 79c | 260.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 174$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 149.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…1d96backed Yes | 14c | 132$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Yes | 28c | 131.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Yes | 29c | 113.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…327dbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…517bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Yes | 31c | 53.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 67c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 70c | 19.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…fe7abacked No | 76c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-18?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. SC Recife end in a draw?No won
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.