South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR vs. SC Recife end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde955e87aaaa2d46a6ae20df60d0a12f45210be67064a18342821084dd2d336d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 43c | 6,293$2,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,561.51 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 62c | 3,284$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.09 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,806$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.14 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 64c | 1,569$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.53 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 1,032$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 12c | 863.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 25c | 724$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 41c | 451.05$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.66 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 429.02$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 29c | 310.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 56c | 274.61$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 143.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 58c | 101.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Yes | 31c | 99.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…9561backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…327dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 71.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 128 | 64.8%83 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…9418backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Yes | 27c | 58.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 66c | 57.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 77c | 55.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…7212backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc4…e092backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8e2backed No | 56c | 40.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…bbccbacked Yes | 29c | 39.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee47…1c4cbacked Yes | 30c | 37.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 42c | 27.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 63c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…dcfdbacked Yes | 64c | 15.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…f4cbbacked No | 72c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR vs. SC Recife end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-18?Yes won
- Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.