Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Stefano Travaglia vs Dane Sweeny
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31cad253a2f8454ec5110cc4f8ec6c505319a92d7b1477faa39eaea7fb2706c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sweenyof Travaglia, Sweeny
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Travaglia | 18c | 4,026$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.05 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Travaglia | 2c | 921.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sweeny | 70c | 473.71$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.15 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Travaglia | 36c | 388$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.1 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sweeny | 68c | 314.62$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Travaglia | 29c | 254.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Travaglia | 18c | 248.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Travaglia | 23c | 193.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Sweeny | 77c | 139$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sweeny | 79c | 119.54$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Travaglia | 36c | 107.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Travaglia | 27c | 94.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Sweeny | 66c | 94.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Travaglia | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Sweeny | 68c | 88.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Sweeny | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Travaglia | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Travaglia | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Sweeny | 75c | 47.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sweeny | 75c | 47.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…f407backed Travaglia | 26c | 41.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 99 | 6.1%6 W · 93 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Sweeny | 71c | 36.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Travaglia | 35c | 35.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sweeny | 76c | 35.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Sweeny | 76c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Sweeny | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…54afbacked Sweeny | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.