NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe0033ec5da0144cc45b5c769af55f0a0f539ac0ea09a383c787314c3e2905ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa386…4785backed Over | 54c | 4,293$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,318.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…d9e4backed Over | 54c | 4,056$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…0855backed Over | 54c | 3,722$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f2…065bbacked Under | 46c | 3,606$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 3,406$1,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.86 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…10c3backed Over | 54c | 3,305$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf14d…71a6backed Under | 46c | 3,191$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09f…d026backed Over | 54c | 3,046$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…4925backed Over | 54c | 2,011$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…9536backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…34b8backed Under | 46c | 1,892$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3192…f9e3backed Under | 46c | 1,857$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…f003backed Over | 54c | 1,486$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…38c2backed Over | 54c | 1,482$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4cd6backed Under | 46c | 1,475$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…0b7dbacked Under | 46c | 1,456$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…60a2backed Under | 46c | 1,446$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…0503backed Under | 46c | 1,438$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…b948backed Over | 54c | 1,436$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6198…f3c3backed Over | 54c | 1,411$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…9d4cbacked Under | 46c | 1,289$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +69%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…2b59backed Under | 46c | 1,276$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee0…3045backed Under | 46c | 1,185$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…6298backed Under | 46c | 1,155$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa122…2b8abacked Under | 46c | 1,140$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…1fbbbacked Under | 46c | 1,125$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d3…f5dcbacked Under | 46c | 1,044$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…e020backed Under | 46c | 1,027$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15df…ff29backed Under | 46c | 876$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 52c | 873.08$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6605…88a3backed Under | 46c | 834$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ed…2b21backed Over | 52c | 800.13$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 55c | 518.94$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.38 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 54c | 489$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.06 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…1754backed Over | 54c | 411$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…7495backed Over | 54c | 233$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…7e24backed Over | 54c | 211$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ac…5759backed Over | 54c | 209$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 52c | 159.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 147.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 134.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 134.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Over | 55c | 103.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…3ea8backed Over | 52c | 94.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 89.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…d458backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Under | 47c | 48.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 37.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe833…1723backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. RocketsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.