NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8f5d805407cd94ffd4b054d3aca2c9fb29b1d328ffd646460cb225296f69349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 3,835$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.05 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 3,736$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.92 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 3,633$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 2,101$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 53c | 1,781$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.13 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 53c | 1,483$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.02 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 53c | 1,081$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.86 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 52c | 1,081$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.67 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Under | 52c | 1,073$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.04 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 726.9$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.9 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 48c | 520$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Under | 51c | 505.88$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.88 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 49c | 343$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.77 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 15c | 333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 214.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b71…0e06backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 163$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 156$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 51c | 156$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 48c | 122.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…76e3backed Over | 23c | 97.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf89c…8937backed Under | 53c | 88.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +7.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Over | 49c | 77.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8843…a5d2backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 53c | 28.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 51c | 28.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. RocketsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.