NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a4ed598a6f903724d490b7a1cda0bc094b9ef4de8ef492038fa357b5fa4701e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 11,657$6,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,411.35 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 10,581$4,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,819.47 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 2,750$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 54c | 1,771$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.62 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…9536backed Over | 42c | 1,500$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.96 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 1,118$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 46c | 1,109$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.1 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 587.26$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Over | 45c | 366.71$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.31 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 324.76$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 322.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.29 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Over | 43c | 259.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 55c | 142.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…b2f4backed Over | 37c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Over | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 38c | 106.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…c969backed Over | 54c | 97.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 45c | 77.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Over | 55c | 56.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 44.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 56c | 33.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396c…34ffbacked Over | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 27.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 55c | 26.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…48c8backed Under | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0b…d92cbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Under | 77c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. RocketsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.