TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Rockets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder54c61,369$32,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,442.351,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Rockets46c33,333$15,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,333.1847848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Rockets47c20,000$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,40029351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5efe…569dbacked Thunder53c17,309$9,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,135.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Rockets47c8,320$3,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,910.4136351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets45c5,438$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.673,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Rockets47c4,668$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19444352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder53c4,238$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.032,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder55c4,120$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.0466853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Rockets47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Rockets46c3,194$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.451,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Rockets47c2,741$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.0442648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets46c2,716$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.946,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Rockets46c2,274$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.041,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets45c1,984$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.559,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd56d…bd7dbacked Thunder54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.858647.7%41 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Rockets35c1,796$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.454334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cf…004dbacked Thunder57c1,404$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.516947.8%33 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Thunder54c1,306$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.5640451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Thunder53c921.28$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.522,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets46c798.91$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.54,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1969…a09cbacked Thunder56c794.42$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.549658.3%56 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Rockets47c700$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3291,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Rockets44c670.86$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.0619135.6%68 W · 123 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets47c638$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.862,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Rockets47c585.08$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.8551146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95d0…04d6backed Thunder62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Rockets46c491.45$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.062,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Thunder55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18015244.1%67 W · 85 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c0f…30e6backed Rockets46c385$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.11346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Rockets47c380.81$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17925452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9069…9c14backed Thunder54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3714557.2%83 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Thunder53c339.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.1168940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ba8…f706backed Thunder54c305.3$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Rockets45c301$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.453336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets45c296.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.548,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Rockets46c260.87$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fdd…23d8backed Rockets47c252$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4410454.8%57 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Thunder53c225.53$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10641553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x058a…ed5cbacked Rockets46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925040%20 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5608…ff5bbacked Thunder53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Thunder52c199.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9684150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a09…76e9backed Thunder53c187.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.377450%37 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f0…cc29backed Thunder53c185$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.11172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24a4…86dabacked Thunder56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.579948.5%48 W · 51 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5761056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Rockets44c178.57$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.572,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Thunder57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Rockets45c160.08$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.042,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Rockets44c149.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7566143.4%287 W · 374 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Thunder55c136.36$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3660346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Rockets48c124.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5217949.2%88 W · 91 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Rockets47c118.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4723250.4%117 W · 115 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Rockets48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4815347.1%72 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe881…1e75backed Rockets45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Thunder52c77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.961,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Rockets41c76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0388845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Thunder57c74.85$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4424363.8%155 W · 88 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Thunder53c71$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.371,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Rockets44c62.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.535749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Thunder54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5615149%74 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Thunder55c51.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1916658.4%97 W · 69 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Thunder55c49.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0914357.3%82 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Thunder54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.332853%174 W · 154 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Thunder58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.831947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Thunder54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0414547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Thunder54c36.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6812062.5%75 W · 45 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Thunder55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3615355.6%85 W · 68 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216b…8528backed Thunder56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Rockets42c35.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.971,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc7…55f6backed Rockets48c35.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7511051.8%57 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Rockets44c34.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516935.5%60 W · 109 L-16.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6460…84efbacked Rockets46c32.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154736.2%17 W · 30 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-32.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Thunder55c29.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4418051.1%92 W · 88 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdaf…7556backed Thunder52c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.462445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…c75fbacked Rockets44c25.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.315034%17 W · 33 L-8.1wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Thunder59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.252,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets47c24.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Rockets47c21.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2732346.4%150 W · 173 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8212…2b8bbacked Thunder54c21.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.011070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Thunder55c21.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7624454.1%132 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20c8…6354backed Thunder54c18.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.