Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x293094d9cc073454d4fa3174d65ec9fb30ae8bd98c04c8021b0b2479ef063987
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $361,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $409,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $361,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked No | 65c | 50,000$32,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,499.97 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 35c | 37,230$12,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,933.16 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 35c | 30,348$10,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,590.47 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 65c | 27,964$18,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,787.35 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed No | 66c | 25,217$16,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,573.78 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 19,686$13,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,965.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…8438backed Yes | 35c | 17,059$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked No | 65c | 16,588$10,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,723.18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…5b59backed Yes | 35c | 15,000$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…15b1backed No | 66c | 14,685$9,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,944.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 35c | 14,300$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 13,458$9,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,422.45 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 11,366$7,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,937.74 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked No | 66c | 10,000$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 66c | 8,254$5,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,806.36 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…4688backed No | 66c | 8,124$5,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…0257backed Yes | 35c | 4,564$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 34c | 3,936$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.11 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…c2f4backed No | 65c | 3,531$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28d…83e4backed No | 65c | 3,507$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 66c | 3,216$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.53 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed No | 65c | 2,993$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.44 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 66c | 2,905$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.8 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked No | 66c | 2,273$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.82 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 33c | 2,142$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.99 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde6c…c5d8backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 65c | 1,800$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.12 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 23c | 1,657$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 33c | 1,621$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.93 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…2b38backed Yes | 7c | 1,543$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…36c4backed Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 67c | 1,382$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.32 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 34c | 1,230$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.64 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 66c | 1,156$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked No | 65c | 1,143$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.92 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,099$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.6 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed No | 64c | 1,039$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.89 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…423abacked Yes | 22c | 999.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 35c | 971.43$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 67c | 957.32$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.6 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 35c | 935.29$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.35 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 35c | 900$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…71f0backed No | 66c | 803.15$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 35c | 770$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 34c | 732.35$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 66c | 724$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.16 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 35c | 677.14$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 8c | 665.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 34c | 588.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 35c | 585.71$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 3c | 569$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed No | 67c | 562.99$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.33 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 15c | 502.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 34c | 488$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.78 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 34c | 476.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.41 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3909…335fbacked No | 65c | 468.51$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 7c | 462.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Yes | 14c | 460.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 65c | 444$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes | 35c | 440$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 65c | 417.12$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 35c | 407.74$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Yes | 35c | 371.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 34c | 370$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Yes | 11c | 369.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2834…c196backed Yes | 4c | 357$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a70…fe0bbacked No | 66c | 349.82$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…f54cbacked No | 66c | 349.62$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1bb2backed No | 66c | 347.36$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec51…4878backed Yes | 35c | 343.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…a789backed Yes | 35c | 343.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 66c | 335.03$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…e76cbacked Yes | 35c | 333.37$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 66c | 276.97$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe307…5644backed Yes | 34c | 234.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Yes | 31c | 234$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Yes | 13c | 231.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 65c | 230.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 34c | 230$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 35c | 214.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Yes | 35c | 203.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-15?this page
- Will FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.