TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed No65c30,560$19,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,776.762740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No60c18,114$10,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,165.843,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes36c11,451$4,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,103.269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes48c8,739$4,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,174.7875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed No65c8,729$5,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,055.231741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes36c6,890$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.251752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No63c5,916$3,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.633721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed No64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8002065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No63c5,000$3,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8304252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes34c4,924$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.672,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes33c4,720$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.6916647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes12c4,019$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.8923842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2398…8894backed Yes36c3,889$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No60c3,835$2,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.271,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes35c3,333$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.5614447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed No64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1252290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick70cpaid+29.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes32c3,063$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.1527138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Yes35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0504835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No64c2,113$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.111056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No63c2,000$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7355457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No51c1,592$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.0953645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes35c1,563$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.0530054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked No68c1,493$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.97683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes61c1,413$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.8451136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1649…7d8abacked Yes36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes36c1,380$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.915134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes12c1,167$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdac9…56e7backed No65c1,058$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed Yes33c1,020$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked No64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3602040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3606053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes37c999.95$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9815847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes35c874$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.910945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes35c789.05$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.2156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes41c748.79$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.47129.6%21 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2457423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x064a…245dbacked No68c666$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.121127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick59cpaid-60.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked No77c605$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.54856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2169746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d5…b767backed Yes37c537.84$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Yes36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1808846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48f9…cd95backed No72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401181.8%9 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes37c493.03$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.429549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed No65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.546768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xddd8…02efbacked Yes36c460.94$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes36c353.91$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.319446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed No65c350.09$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.033548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes35c343.46$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.212326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked No65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.695552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No65c305$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5633945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed Yes36c301$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Yes35c290$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes35c285$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes36c278$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7134342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No64c269$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8417251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb15…5fefbacked No38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.162259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d16…addabacked Yes37c256.94$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.061136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed Yes34c225.76$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.766126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Yes35c210$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7215829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6b8…3539backed No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed No65c200$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef9f…425ebacked No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681090%9 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick75cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No73c197.8$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.596051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes36c196.32$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9611644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed No65c194.29$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes36c190$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9321450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed No21c190$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.112832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x223e…fc48backed Yes32c187.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes36c182.14$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.579252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c07…aeb0backed Yes39c167.33$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-77.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked No32c156.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.232544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed Yes32c156$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.929145.1%41 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.853574.3%26 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked No66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.522466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68f0…fdf8backed Yes75c150$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked No65c149.98$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.499062.2%56 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe287…7029backed Yes33c148.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes36c141.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5111952.1%62 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02d…16cabacked Yes36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No64c138.22$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2516045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98be…51d9backed Yes36c137.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes36c132.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.672924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No21c125$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7521041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e27…d6cabacked Yes38c120.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fe…c8c2backed No65c115.38$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.382161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2683…2be7backed Yes37c113.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+56.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed Yes37c113.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.873046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x604d…4608backed Yes36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402737%10 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked No66c110.61$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.613876.3%29 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1670…2277backed Yes36c109.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe513…3328backed Yes65c107.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes36c106$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.162642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Yes15c105.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.051827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca0c…9c40backed Yes18c102.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20db…a0f2backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.