TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$443,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$440,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $443,682 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked No41c31,693$12,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,705.771,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe8…3549backed Yes60c30,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-70.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No39c25,457$9,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,488.7710553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No38c24,356$9,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,017.414228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No44c22,052$9,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,458.2217251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Yes57c16,086$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,099.89742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes61c14,000$8,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,47010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No40c11,500$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9004524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes59c11,251$6,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,588.8675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87c0…6660backed Yes0c11,108$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a12…d3febacked Yes59c11,000$6,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,450.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bcc…0c4bbacked Yes59c10,600$6,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,304425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Yes58c10,001$5,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,839.152356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe348…a303backed Yes73c7,023$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed No40c6,800$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.981040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked Yes1c6,713$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.494119.5%8 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x985e…6894backed Yes0c6,264$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7087…c61fbacked Yes55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.912441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No41c5,465$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,219.231,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No41c5,117$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,019.1833244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No41c5,000$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9752630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes61c4,470$2,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,712.69549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes61c4,407$2,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,688.575440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes60c4,024$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,427.433,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes59c3,797$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.0114756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed No39c3,650$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.495653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes56c3,500$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes52c3,500$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.9715847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No41c3,333$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.4714447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No37c3,284$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,082.1553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes62c3,264$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No39c3,121$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.4511056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No40c3,073$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.645052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No40c3,004$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.0644749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes48c2,945$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.939532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed Yes56c2,863$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.783721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Yes56c2,641$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.222040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No38c2,600$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6096144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec9a…ad34backed Yes22c2,414$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes60c2,400$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42824050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2201764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No40c2,000$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.996053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9911644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No49c1,698$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.582,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8052…cd55backed No38c1,568$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8855457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked No39c1,500$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.9827726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes59c1,429$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.9634342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No38c1,393$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.561163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes60c1,361$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No45c1,302$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.8451136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes62c1,300$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8062766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes80c1,249$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.275444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48cd…113dbacked Yes8c1,241$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No38c1,128$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.3618545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Yes44c1,124$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+84.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed No49c1,012$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.644360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Yes59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5903221.9%7 W · 25 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-50.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4703633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7669…8390backed No40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed No50c997.08$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Yes61c820$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.24522.2%10 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Yes61c811.93$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed No41c800$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4721662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Yes63c793.65$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-63.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes59c776.21$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.969854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed No40c748.5$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.17639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes63c689.99$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.1220436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No41c654.06$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.910945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x504f…e2a2backed No41c621$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.66633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4acf…a07fbacked Yes56c617.88$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0170%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No41c599.99$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.999746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed No42c555$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.92748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Yes21c549.54$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.717230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Yes58c518$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0814254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No40c508$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.84252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No41c499.96$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.985554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes61c491.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…d438backed Yes63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Yes53c473.36$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.88944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes59c426.65$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2481323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No40c400$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24031145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes62c387.1$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2409252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes61c375.51$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.061580%12 W · 3 L+4.8wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+63.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes58c373.57$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes58c373.04$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.367152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Yes59c350$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20716850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…625dbacked Yes61c350$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.56639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ef…10ebbacked No23c347.83$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.832334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed Yes60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick70cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd94…c56cbacked Yes61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb19…3527backed Yes25c321.67$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Yes77c298.7$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No43c293.84$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.058946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Yes20c271.49$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.