Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a681d8368823f01d22fa33f7ccc307ffee931ca3edeb1044010f4c9ff08166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 4c | 8,864$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.74 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 18c | 7,539$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,995$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.22 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,781$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 18c | 3,619$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.05 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 17c | 3,333$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.61 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed Yes | 17c | 3,330$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.82 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 16c | 3,024$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.91 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 18c | 2,744$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.76 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,912$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,849$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…9c5fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed Yes | 15c | 1,122$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,115$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.38 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,011$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…ad34backed Yes | 20c | 1,002$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 16c | 937.08$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.32 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Yes | 8c | 831.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes | 15c | 792.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.93 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 17c | 611.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 16c | 599.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 17c | 583.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 563.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…8e69backed Yes | 10c | 505.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 9c | 493.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Yes | 17c | 484.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 16c | 334$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 5c | 309$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Yes | 5c | 260.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 8c | 230$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…f510backed Yes | 14c | 218.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…5286backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Yes | 6c | 194.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f85…3b32backed Yes | 10c | 153.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 149.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 17c | 114.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe46e…c07dbacked Yes | 16c | 109.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 16c | 91.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 20c | 75.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 16c | 72.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 16c | 72.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 50.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.