TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$187,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$241,481

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae0f…f647backed Yes34c31,514$10,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,694.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked No0c22,522$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.384119.5%8 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No60c18,164$10,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,865.233,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No39c13,397$5,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,198.312,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes17c7,000$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,81010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No78c6,932$5,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,406.964938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No72c6,543$4,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,682.3475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe348…a303backed Yes71c5,600$3,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked No77c5,195$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0004854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed No77c4,482$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4511741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes23c4,332$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.5816647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes24c3,333$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,533.0814447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed No77c2,544$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.171464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes28c2,154$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.171,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No76c2,153$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.281,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes23c2,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5405425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed No30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9915847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b5a…7070backed Yes70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.57520%1 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick70cpaid-71.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No65c1,201$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.5551136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87c0…6660backed No1c1,133$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No77c1,103$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.32948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes75c1,060$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.094856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No77c1,046$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.722250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed No25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No76c953$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.2869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed No27c695.56$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.761533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c97…e1a3backed Yes73c564.4$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+71.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No77c550.5$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.8944749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes23c542.37$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.6222829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Yes17c470.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.596344.4%28 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No37c399.84$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.239532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No35c362.11$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.998946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No34c357.19$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2816542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked No22c349.23$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.679951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes23c339.9$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes31c326.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.0153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes26c312.66$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.739252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes23c300$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23119446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No77c276$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5230054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes70c260$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfccd…b1afbacked No28c250$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked No10c242.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.28345.9%2 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb19…3527backed Yes71c224.6$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Yes70c219.34$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.84926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Yes24c210$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.62437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes24c208.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.336827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15416045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd40b…429abacked Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Yes34c191.18$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.181216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aea…e33ebacked No77c180.52$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed No36c174.36$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.217230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc03…89ccbacked No77c174.03$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc67…3020backed No77c172.73$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No26c170.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.752536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed No49c169.67$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5614934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes24c163.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.323237.5%12 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Yes24c162.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.54353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Yes24c162.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.53246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3736…b729backed No77c159.74$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fce…dcb4backed No77c157.14$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3168…f285backed No77c154.55$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58bc…1fdbbacked No10c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd8…ec8dbacked No77c148.05$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a86…f5a8backed No77c146.75$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4bc…9937backed No77c142.86$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c18…5e7cbacked No77c138.96$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed No39c138.6$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.43644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0f…56e1backed No77c137.66$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1412…b6debacked No78c136.29$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc57f…5c69backed No77c133.77$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes58c131.45$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4311644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc12…69d8backed No77c131.17$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No77c129.32$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9411056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf44e…6e9ebacked Yes25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904100%4 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+287.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d55…1e94backed No28c109.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.84219%8 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Yes23c107.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9531145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b89…baa4backed Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes54c92.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5439558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9380…a275backed Yes69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Yes69c84.93$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.933063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5212…29c7backed Yes24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.33944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.331241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+52.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.333636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.334344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9371…3aecbacked No28c81.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9280%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed No65c81.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.856056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Yes24c79.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1711540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes19c78.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.951936.8%7 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+52.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Yes22c77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.067759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes69c74.85$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Yes22c72.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.244641.3%19 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed No62c70.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.265137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes75c63.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes35c59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.08862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick33cpaid+70.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1db5…79f4backed Yes73c56.54$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes72c55.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.567268.1%49 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes23c55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.356144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf29…1f7dbacked Yes69c51.23$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b5…42e7backed Yes23c50.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.385664.3%36 W · 20 L+6.6wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.