Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80612e65938b75556f25e1dca86d3c42cab4b523ee84af2e7bfde3a9d72acc74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 984.42$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 51c | 649.25$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.25 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 43c | 567.23$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.84 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…8675backed Yes | 58c | 516.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…057dbacked No | 9c | 405.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 50c | 372.52$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…4e25backed Yes | 58c | 204$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 42c | 204$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 44c | 195.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 45c | 188.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…0912backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed No | 44c | 111.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Yes | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 56c | 67.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Yes | 56c | 62.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 51c | 61.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 55c | 59.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked No | 46c | 53.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked No | 44c | 39.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed No | 60c | 33.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked No | 43c | 30.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Yes | 41c | 29.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bb…15eebacked Yes | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 80c | 23.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.