Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40762eb6d4a9f2a1cccfeca5fd1b0b3783a465617de92c461041165a73824760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 3,058$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 1,249$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.6 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 19c | 265.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 132.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 125.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…0862backed Over | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…1d88backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 25c | 46.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…fad8backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 69c | 33.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 44c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5this page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.