TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,694 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Under50c73,355$36,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,623.91947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c39,729$19,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,865.731,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under49c8,821$4,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,322.259455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over50c7,689$3,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,844.332962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over50c6,514$3,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.7878248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over50c5,678$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,828.372,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under50c4,667$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.4933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over54c3,826$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.0322747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over51c2,147$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.491,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Under36c1,692$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.937532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75011630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under49c1,122$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.775145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c1,002$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.93,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Under49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Over52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.546448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Over54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.931145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Over51c906.96$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.482454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over50c832.14$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.0335856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under48c795.54$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.862646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over53c591.97$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9319254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Over55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.452470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Over51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.23369.7%23 W · 10 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Over51c483.98$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.156558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Under50c336.04$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.61450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Over51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1472931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over45c266.76$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.774254.8%23 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.511860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed Under50c239.71$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over53c234.38$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.166659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13610552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaffc…fab4backed Over30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+74.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under48c199.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9613142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Over54c179.41$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.532462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over51c163.06$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7817456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over50c152.14$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0722829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over51c138.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4311540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under59c138.18$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.761,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over29c137.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9327142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Over51c136.61$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.944671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over51c119.34$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8251136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Under48c101.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.088253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Over50c99.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.497452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…479dbacked Over51c97.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.94650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2104…82d7backed Over52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.156063.3%38 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…cf52backed Over53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.341258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb007…7f04backed Over52c87$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2969…6d76backed Under49c82.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3744…3e65backed Under49c81.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0734655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over55c73.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.271566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Over51c66.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4711748.7%57 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over51c66.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4133340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6781…2ff5backed Over52c64.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under48c62.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0518746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98e0…6695backed Over80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa21f…adddbacked Over54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.563070%21 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over54c51.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.859243.5%40 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over36c51.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.911744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Over51c51.2$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.097052.9%37 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60a4…1d88backed Over33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99df…b59abacked Over51c49.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1720753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Under50c41.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.611338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f8…5486backed Over52c39.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.228844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Over51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.222560%15 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under47c38.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.254641.3%19 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.466058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over54c38.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.421,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Over51c37.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.471850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5925352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Over51c30.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.835547.3%26 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5acf…b718backed Over51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed Over51c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.211650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over52c28.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.948056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ef…0b77backed Over53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Over46c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.66056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Under46c22.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8d…55c5backed Over51c21.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over51c20.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.926241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bca…dcaabacked Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1853…68ffbacked Over51c19.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+33.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.