Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf95aa04021aebdbd4e56293f83c8fef38ca1df2326c73056931cce50d5d5d51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 1,835$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.21 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 73c | 862.16$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.32 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 63c | 789.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.67 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 24c | 600.13$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Over | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 72c | 416.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 77c | 410.78$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 78c | 230$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 227.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 226.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…d0f5backed Under | 25c | 101.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 94.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 70c | 71.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 37c | 67.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed Over | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 30 | 93.3%28 W · 2 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 76c | 54.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 78c | 35.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 60c | 25.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 76c | 14.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5this page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.