Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80a44100aed751f865e5d7ffa063f32f732dcbbef24e8c7b08399ce64a55cdb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 71c | 1,043$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 614.79$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Over | 49c | 530.61$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…057dbacked Under | 6c | 500.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 499$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 498.99$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.49 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 79c | 406$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.37 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 30c | 403.15$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.4 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 69c | 247.15$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.53 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 191.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 75c | 132.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 30c | 63.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ce…9e59backed Over | 67c | 54.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 30c | 43.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 63c | 40.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…5486backed Under | 71c | 15.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5this page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.