Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75c9f87a4bcea6ecffa390cd354e22a3b1695aad64a92cdf30a0655c108e283c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $341,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $343,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $341,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 20c | 120,000$24,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,000 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 17c | 32,781$5,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,531.26 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed Yes | 80c | 20,000$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…f06fbacked No | 18c | 16,500$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 80c | 13,589$10,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.78 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed No | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 17c | 7,086$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.61 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 19c | 5,244$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.8 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 20c | 4,764$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.85 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d405backed No | 18c | 4,237$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 19c | 3,100$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.5 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 11c | 2,790$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.79 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed No | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 20c | 2,033$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.59 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes | 80c | 1,429$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 79c | 1,400$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 80c | 1,350$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +326.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 18c | 1,250$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.56 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 20c | 1,033$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.08 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 16c | 878.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae5…40e1backed No | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 726.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed No | 20c | 659$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 19c | 600.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…7addbacked No | 20c | 530$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 80c | 524$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed No | 18c | 433$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed No | 19c | 428.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed Yes | 80c | 331.22$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…3cd9backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed No | 19c | 255.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1d…cdf6backed No | 20c | 230$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 19c | 189.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked Yes | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Yes | 80c | 173.86$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edf…4774backed Yes | 80c | 156.16$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 13.8%9 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43a0…67dbbacked Yes | 80c | 130.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…97f5backed Yes | 80c | 129.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…968cbacked Yes | 80c | 126.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212a…dbe8backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +191%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 18c | 110.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…c63bbacked Yes | 80c | 86.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…fdccbacked No | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 16c | 65.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked No | 18c | 55.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Yes | 80c | 51.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd24…cb46backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…025cbacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…60babacked Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…9802backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Yes | 80c | 26.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b8…bf67backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8686…7e4cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will FC Porto vs. Malmö FF end in a draw?No won
- Will Malmö FF win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.