TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$628,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$653,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $628,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Under57c301,894$171,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,290.062832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Under57c162,000$91,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,831.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over44c151,307$65,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,334.1610553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Over43c135,529$58,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,251.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+93.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c41,917$20,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,661.433,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over43c40,976$17,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,349.621,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over44c30,000$13,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,95016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Over43c19,999$8,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,321.662365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over43c12,263$5,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,989.778248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Under49c10,045$4,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,960.784443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over45c9,580$4,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,309.3144749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Under56c7,506$4,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,203.242065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Over44c6,336$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,548.364963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Over43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8502035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Over43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,850425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under55c4,330$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.681,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78da…b975backed Under50c4,028$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e92…c03fbacked Over50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under51c3,529$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8004254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over47c3,507$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.5656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over44c3,343$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.6475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Under47c3,095$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7107057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7106459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Under50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over45c2,490$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.12962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under55c2,410$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.345052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1204835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Over43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1401154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Over47c1,982$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.310945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Over44c1,900$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0642334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over44c1,845$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.8811056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Over75c1,400$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3503966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Over74c1,318$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.3622747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Under56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over78c999.58$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.916366.7%42 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over51c950$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.56251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Under32c860.09$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.126227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under49c844.66$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.8851136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over43c800$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4568764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d2f…6cadbacked Under51c694.12$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over45c600$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.222829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over49c575.51$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.225848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Under55c538.75$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.752142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dad…a040backed Over75c533.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.336182%50 W · 11 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+18.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over70c532.09$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.3512832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over45c510$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.55052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Over44c510$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over50c502.4$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.24658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceb7…391ebacked Over54c500$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.714187.8%36 W · 5 L+9.1wins+0.22per pick66cpaid+50.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over51c482.35$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.352755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed Over51c476.33$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.153046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over44c430.73$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.612147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x628e…1d80backed Over45c427.33$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+40.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over43c420$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.422854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over43c420$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.415454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over43c420$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.48864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Over60c416.67$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.672245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under43c400.25$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.982,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over43c400$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22824258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Under5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20345.9%2 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Over44c399.99$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e28…df76backed Over41c399.22$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+106.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe7f…9127backed Over62c392.51$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.511181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick62cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Over46c371.74$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.742254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over50c360$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over46c347.83$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8310552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over45c333.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3311857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over43c330$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.113957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over43c330$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.114355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over45c314.2$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.812470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked Over45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1651353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17111860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17112162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Over43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1711957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over49c284.29$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8312951.2%66 W · 63 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over46c253.03$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0320753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.58461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.512858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over52c246$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.938551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over54c245.89$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.899548.4%46 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…0e75backed Over50c240.74$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.742642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca3…590fbacked Over43c233.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1925…8249backed Over44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under46c226.29$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.688946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over52c225$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1084141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked Over49c222.29$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.292454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Over45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Over45c220.8$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.44683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick48cpaid+79.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over43c220$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.412757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc450…f2f7backed Over74c218.46$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8887.5%7 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick76cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9277…2aedbacked Over45c214.42$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb85e…e18dbacked Over47c213.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.643250%16 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fdf…0726backed Over48c209.54$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.