Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb057c23eae7e9acbd50d1c7b29ae8636b07d85b7a2635db0d37aa73f2aa2ae87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC St. Pauli 1910of VfL Wolfsburg, FC St. Pauli 1910
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 15,804$11,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,892.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed VfL Wolfsburg | 25c | 8,237$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.27 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked VfL Wolfsburg | 26c | 4,286$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.26 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed VfL Wolfsburg | 20c | 1,874$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.61 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 1,296$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.96 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…7fdcbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 72c | 1,256$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…33b4backed VfL Wolfsburg | 27c | 1,080$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 27c | 615$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 467$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.38 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…56c2backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 410$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…ea1cbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 24c | 328.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…d058backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 270$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 22c | 247.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed VfL Wolfsburg | 21c | 243.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed VfL Wolfsburg | 13c | 222.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 147.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 141$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed VfL Wolfsburg | 22c | 136.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…f8c6backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 93.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed VfL Wolfsburg | 33c | 77.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 72c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 78c | 62.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed VfL Wolfsburg | 27c | 50.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…b42dbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 32.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 30 | 93.3%28 W · 2 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…342dbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aef4backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 25.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…104bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 19.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…df06backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 76c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 69c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 69c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 76c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.