Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6c66e3d7bd9bc38dcf2e652cc984289493b1a21311816bd79e808d99e9a7f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 4,427$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 71c | 2,544$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.76 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 71c | 1,200$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 1,167$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.33 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 71c | 787.31$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.32 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 29c | 694.39$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 25c | 611.97$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.11 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 34c | 379.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 25c | 312$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 80c | 276.38$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…b50bbacked Over | 76c | 169.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 26c | 164.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 69c | 161.83$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 157.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…f258backed Over | 75c | 145.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 75c | 145.09$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 13c | 139.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 10c | 129.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 76c | 115.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 112.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a72…ce3ebacked Over | 75c | 112$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…81dabacked Over | 69c | 103.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 66c | 100.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 75c | 77.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 71c | 67.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 34c | 67.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…c577backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd95b…188ebacked Over | 75c | 65.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…8afcbacked Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +72%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f2…625bbacked Under | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c50…ab35backed Over | 75c | 41.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 65c | 33.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c2…6784backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 78c | 27.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…9127backed Over | 76c | 26.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Over | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Over | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.