Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa5cd67292ff1554dc5f93987f2cd9e5dfd922f61e45e27cc5190aea12598fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 79c | 8,500$6,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.1 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 7,949$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 20c | 1,224$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.4 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 75c | 941.45$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.26 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 24c | 916.67$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 28c | 562.01$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 30c | 242.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 22c | 229.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 72c | 207.33$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 35c | 186.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 28c | 100.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 71c | 87.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 39c | 87.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 34c | 86.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 39c | 62.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 29c | 60.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 27c | 58.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 62c | 50.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Over | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…b254backed Under | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Under | 73c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…7a9bbacked Under | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 56c | 17.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.