Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd63b9a9a3ccbac993559d30f9fcd139b1e0ba0cb07960e484fae5a3090c006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed No | 47c | 3,159$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 3,157$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 53c | 2,868$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.26 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…7acbbacked Yes | 44c | 999.95$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed No | 50c | 776.5$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.25 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 48c | 657.94$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.11 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 49c | 635.3$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.77 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 50c | 501.54$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 43c | 325.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.58 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 46c | 250$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 60c | 220$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 46c | 157.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed No | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 125.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 49c | 117.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 50c | 99.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 53c | 96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Yes | 53c | 93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Yes | 53c | 79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Yes | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…8797backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47ce…2414backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 53c | 52.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 47c | 45.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Yes | 50c | 44.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 54c | 41.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39f…0af2backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…7937backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed No | 46c | 30.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked No | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Yes | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 66c | 23.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…32c3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb793…15d0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.