TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Jazz, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,463,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,541,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,463,405 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 967 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Jazz45c252,281$113,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,184.8954539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks57c220,309$126,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,725.172,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed Jazz40c190,599$76,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,875.395253.8%28 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Jazz43c162,741$70,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,774.1622453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Jazz42c111,890$46,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,531.951844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab44…d88ebacked Jazz3c94,891$3,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,231.78030%24 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Mavericks55c90,883$49,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,895.4721057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xefa5…3d34backed Jazz3c83,322$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.067537.3%28 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks56c76,111$43,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,111.111,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Mavericks56c45,000$25,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,80026753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Jazz22c41,500$8,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,979.971,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ff…9f77backed Jazz51c41,334$20,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,982.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x638c…3d19backed Mavericks50c39,722$19,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,861.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Mavericks57c38,862$22,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,682.061,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Mavericks60c30,167$18,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,066.6726949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Mavericks58c29,499$17,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,408.0636359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks57c26,259$14,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,309.579,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Mavericks52c26,134$13,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,556.082,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Jazz0c25,922$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5764517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks60c25,515$15,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,251.883,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Jazz0c24,890$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.627211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7caf…058bbacked Mavericks52c21,468$11,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,304.56977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+56.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Jazz44c21,300$9,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,372.0712147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Mavericks60c20,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,00066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Mavericks58c17,536$10,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,365.1229351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Jazz45c15,602$7,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,050.1128742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Jazz0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…0b2ebacked Mavericks60c14,908$8,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,963.221637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Jazz44c14,748$6,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,508.9352460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Jazz46c14,485$6,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,723.0861851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jazz47c13,421$6,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,327.672,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Mavericks53c13,000$6,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,129.9947043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Jazz41c12,180$4,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,993.85541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Jazz0c12,069$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.145213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Mavericks50c11,120$5,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,560.0738253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Mavericks51c10,929$5,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,376.8734654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Jazz22c10,603$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36523052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Jazz44c10,554$4,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,643.6337557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Jazz42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2008827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Mavericks56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40014243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Mavericks59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,10019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cae…a00abacked Mavericks54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6004465.9%29 W · 15 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Jazz40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Jazz43c9,999$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.5715247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Mavericks57c9,396$5,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,072.9239958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Jazz0c8,233$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.488820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Jazz40c7,959$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,202.381,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Jazz10c7,889$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.0419653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Mavericks58c7,777$4,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.3424554.7%134 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Mavericks57c7,701$4,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,284.6910255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eee…0a68backed Jazz2c7,636$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f76…6323backed Jazz1c6,700$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.410119.8%20 W · 81 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-42.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Jazz49c6,592$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.0830845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Jazz45c6,327$2,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,867.783959%23 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid+4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Mavericks60c6,300$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52047751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Mavericks60c6,250$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Jazz41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,46032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7deb…2682backed Jazz42c5,892$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Jazz49c5,555$2,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,721.9536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks56c5,251$2,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,312.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Mavericks59c5,085$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.7547856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Jazz41c5,041$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.8118151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Jazz48c5,012$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.722459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Jazz41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05046928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Mavericks59c4,999$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.7945348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc01c…bc00backed Mavericks50c4,900$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0898…6a6ebacked Jazz50c4,900$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b7…4719backed Jazz50c4,800$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Jazz48c4,784$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Mavericks60c4,733$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.3311755.6%65 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Jazz47c4,703$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.6427758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Jazz25c4,595$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.091,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Jazz19c4,559$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.8931430.3%95 W · 219 L-1.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Jazz41c4,509$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.8820744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Jazz5c4,500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Mavericks58c4,490$2,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.666860.3%41 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Mavericks60c4,156$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.471547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Jazz43c4,117$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.9130947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Jazz50c4,078$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03924847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mavericks79c4,006$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.33,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Mavericks55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.9937944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Mavericks60c3,934$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.4415348.4%74 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks69c3,825$2,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.078,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Mavericks60c3,500$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Jazz48c3,463$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66228649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…d82abacked Jazz0c3,400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Mavericks51c3,377$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.9762347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Jazz47c3,310$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.692,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Mavericks60c3,013$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.1573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6970…0243backed Jazz50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Jazz0c3,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134200.7%3 W · 417 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Mavericks53c3,000$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41561336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Jazz45c3,000$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.2235235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks57c2,993$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.83,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz5c2,924$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.554,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Mavericks56c2,856$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.5111142.3%47 W · 64 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Jazz3c2,853$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8028616.4%47 W · 239 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89da…a6c2backed Jazz6c2,849$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.361034.9%5 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Jazz48c2,771$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3309952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.