NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b02bd814733c38420b544d5117be9278a413a4947c7c750cba3ea5b1dacf25b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Mavericks, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Jazz | 51c | 47,307$24,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,074.05 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Jazz | 51c | 37,698$19,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,252.95 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks | 49c | 25,583$12,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,063.27 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 48c | 14,794$7,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,672.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…34d4backed Mavericks | 49c | 12,788$6,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,521.76 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 49c | 9,527$4,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,858.77 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Mavericks | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Mavericks | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Mavericks | 51c | 4,804$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.85 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Mavericks | 49c | 4,728$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.15 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Jazz | 49c | 4,264$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.25 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Jazz | 55c | 4,227$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 48c | 4,032$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.83 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Mavericks | 46c | 3,183$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.61 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jazz | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks | 50c | 2,442$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Jazz | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 49c | 997.31$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.6 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Mavericks | 49c | 852.41$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.73 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…f721backed Jazz | 55c | 749.5$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.39 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…2fdebacked Jazz | 50c | 740$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Mavericks | 49c | 588.06$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.91 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Jazz | 51c | 473.07$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.06 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 51c | 464.16$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Mavericks | 48c | 407$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.93 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…84bdbacked Jazz | 49c | 381.94$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.15 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Mavericks | 47c | 355$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.15 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Mavericks | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…0848backed Mavericks | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b3…ed87backed Mavericks | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…6a0abacked Mavericks | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Mavericks | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Jazz | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 48c | 165.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Jazz | 51c | 93.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…c969backed Jazz | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Jazz | 51c | 85.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Jazz | 51c | 82.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Mavericks | 50c | 53.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Mavericks | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Mavericks | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Mavericks | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Mavericks | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Jazz | 51c | 23.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Mavericks | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)this page
- Jazz vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Jazz (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.