Premier League · resolved market
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331db0ba15d924ed0d446177996d66e0b7244b4e5a40312b05efeb174aeb209e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 39c | 35,095$13,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,687.05 | 277 | 50.9%141 W · 136 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 61c | 35,000$21,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,650 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…cb21backed Yes | 64c | 15,691$10,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,676.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9bb3backed No | 38c | 7,474$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840.12 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +9.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 6,207$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.75 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 4,354$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.77 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 58c | 3,078$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.15 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Yes | 61c | 2,459$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.02 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Yes | 61c | 2,056$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.73 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abb…452ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,658$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,248$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.21 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 62c | 1,219$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.04 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 41c | 828.49$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.59 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 36c | 683.03$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.74 | 113 | 24.8%28 W · 85 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 52c | 680$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.3 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 60c | 612.41$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.21 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Yes | 51c | 594.99$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.55 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 49c | 530$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.3 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 40c | 523.73$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.49 | 219 | 65.3%143 W · 76 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 37c | 437.22$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 41c | 432.49$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 51c | 392.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.31 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 56c | 320$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 43c | 320$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 61c | 228.13$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 37c | 215.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 40c | 200.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 75c | 191.7$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 7c | 191.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 62c | 168.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da7…100dbacked Yes | 80c | 161.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed Yes | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 208 | 40.9%85 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 44c | 154.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 274 | 54%148 W · 126 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 40c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 20c | 148.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 139 | 41%57 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 12c | 124.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 58c | 107$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 68c | 93.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 55c | 85.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 285 | 31.2%89 W · 196 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Yes | 61c | 82.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 60c | 78.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 401 | 57.6%231 W · 170 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 61c | 65.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 42c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…ba9fbacked Yes | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ec…585abacked Yes | 55c | 51.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked No | 38c | 41.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…1c2dbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…c138backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…c34dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -9.5wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 60c | 29.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 44c | 29.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 50.9%147 W · 142 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa84a…fb00backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…94ebbacked No | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…dae3backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…6dc6backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…512abacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 139 | 44.6%62 W · 77 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will Coventry City FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.