NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc68922640c3c1fd71cace629d8965672b1c531156b63641bf84b26ae46feeacd

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Warriorsof Warriors, Hornets
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,223 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors	57c	6,710$3,825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,885.63	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets	44c	6,630$2,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,892.65	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Hornets	43c	5,183$2,229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,228.69	94	40.4%38 W · 56 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors	56c	4,376$2,430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,945.91	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Hornets	47c	2,124$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$939.99	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Warriors	57c	1,614$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$694.02	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets	44c	834$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.96	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Hornets	44c	600$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ae…bf54backed Warriors	56c	582$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.08	160	53.1%85 W · 75 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hornets	43c	277.58$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.35	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Warriors	64c	156.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	265	45.3%120 W · 145 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets	35c	153.83$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.05	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e3…a336backed Warriors	56c	102.28$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.68	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-6.3wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…74b7backed Warriors	55c	72.16$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.16	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Hornets	42c	52.17$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Warriors	59c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	421	43.7%184 W · 237 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc75…53d6backed Warriors	57c	45$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.35	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets	43c	43.86$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.86	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9713…8219backed Warriors	57c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.2	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.1wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Warriors	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Hornets	44c	34.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	169	35.5%60 W · 109 L	-16.9wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7b94…315bbacked Warriors	59c	33.92$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.92	21	76.2%16 W · 5 L	+3.8wins	+0.18per pick	58cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Hornets	42c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors	58c	32.83$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.79	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Warriors	56c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.92	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Warriors (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event