NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81f50fa0dd4c3b2f92c65f4b7e0a663197c0c06572261fb657810c478eb4181f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 50c | 28,529$14,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,369.4 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 19,289$9,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,724.09 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 9,700$4,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,243.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…4961backed Under | 50c | 7,787$3,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,893.5 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 5,711$2,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,855.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 5,688$2,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.97 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Under | 64c | 3,909$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 2,392$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.28 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 1,897$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.18 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 971.79$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.11 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 19c | 657$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.17 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 436$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 51c | 295$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 76c | 263$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 18c | 105.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 84.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 56.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 42.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…1008backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 52c | 28.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Hornets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.