NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8213eeb5d1c7d731e7c4911db8413a366c8eeb04e02d907ff5f7f8aea341c584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 40c | 125,000$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 60c | 113,119$67,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,247.5 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 53c | 3,606$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.77 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 2,502$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.27 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 1,752$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 47c | 1,642$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.74 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Under | 48c | 982$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.36 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 42c | 685.83$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.17 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 58c | 622$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.24 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…ecb7backed Over | 56c | 401.79$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.79 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 41c | 237.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 237.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Under | 48c | 194.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…c068backed Over | 52c | 186.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 145 | 37.9%55 W · 90 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 39c | 167.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 61c | 159.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Under | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 43c | 105.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 60c | 55.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 43c | 52.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 61c | 45.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…84b9backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 61c | 28.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 60c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Hornets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.