NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5dfb3c28d07b33638b9cf3c7bc3c0bac704b7f40a187b8fa99356455676f788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 53c | 63,937$33,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,369.06 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 33,879$16,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,067.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Over | 53c | 31,504$16,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,806.87 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…dfecbacked Under | 48c | 20,521$9,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,748.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 16,687$7,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,864.27 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 16,131$7,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,626.72 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 10,842$5,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,207.48 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 53c | 8,057$4,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,811.27 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c3…baaebacked Over | 53c | 7,903$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,723.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 5,661$2,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,680.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…d82ebacked Over | 50c | 2,820$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 46c | 2,113$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.05 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 56c | 2,072$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.67 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 2,002$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.87 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 1,988$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.81 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 1,900$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 1,117$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Under | 53c | 1,076$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.28 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Under | 50c | 867.72$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.86 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 615$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.05 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Over | 52c | 600$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 600$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 47c | 531$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Over | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 45c | 379.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.39 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Over | 54c | 314.79$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 48c | 305.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.99 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 265$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 240$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 48c | 211.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 50c | 159.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 47c | 112.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 44c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Under | 46c | 99.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 94.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 74.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Over | 54c | 69.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -12.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 49c | 54.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 44c | 50.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 47.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…79c9backed Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 44.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…9635backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Under | 47c | 26.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 57c | 23.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 46c | 23.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 48c | 21.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…f845backed Under | 50c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…a396backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Hornets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.