NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5868f9bfeb1e4775abfbf1647d6d374972eb3a23d3017d9d4433e1f724404b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Warriors | 51c | 29,333$14,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,415.61 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets | 49c | 16,823$8,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,237.11 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 50c | 13,219$6,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,566.36 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Hornets | 49c | 10,038$4,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Warriors | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 49c | 8,899$4,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,375.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Hornets | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Hornets | 48c | 5,562$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…06babacked Hornets | 47c | 5,477$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…7dd5backed Hornets | 47c | 5,372$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,524.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dc…2ef7backed Hornets | 47c | 5,153$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f8…b76fbacked Warriors | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Hornets | 46c | 4,348$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Hornets | 47c | 2,562$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.22 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Hornets | 49c | 2,363$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.87 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Warriors | 54c | 2,113$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.82 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Warriors | 52c | 2,102$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.04 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 50c | 2,102$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…b416backed Warriors | 53c | 1,985$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…b4cfbacked Warriors | 53c | 1,893$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…15dabacked Warriors | 53c | 1,872$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c86…a962backed Warriors | 53c | 1,825$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cb…4558backed Warriors | 53c | 1,714$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…3e2bbacked Warriors | 53c | 1,620$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…4d36backed Warriors | 53c | 1,569$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…62fdbacked Warriors | 53c | 1,546$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…7e84backed Warriors | 53c | 1,378$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Hornets | 52c | 1,158$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.06 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Hornets | 46c | 1,081$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.26 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Hornets | 50c | 783$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 47c | 719.52$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…f7cbbacked Warriors | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Hornets | 45c | 599.93$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.97 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Hornets | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hornets | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Warriors | 51c | 403.45$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 55c | 379.97$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.06 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Hornets | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Hornets | 49c | 304.59$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Hornets | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…089fbacked Warriors | 54c | 235$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Hornets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Hornets | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Hornets | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hornets | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…c068backed Hornets | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 145 | 37.9%55 W · 90 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Hornets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Hornets | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 47c | 155.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Hornets | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Warriors | 64c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Hornets | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Hornets | 18c | 144$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Hornets | 16c | 137$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Hornets | 44c | 93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Warriors | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Hornets | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Hornets | 48c | 70.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Warriors | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Hornets | 53c | 58.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Hornets | 45c | 55.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Hornets | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…a336backed Warriors | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Warriors | 49c | 40.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Hornets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Hornets | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Hornets | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 55c | 28.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Warriors | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Warriors | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Hornets | 48c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Hornets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.