NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb017705eb91354f9bec82b496e99cf6f6054d5983c580228879279db98e442de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e70…f7cbbacked Under | 48c | 7,322$3,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,514.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Over | 55c | 5,460$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,459.67 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…b4cfbacked Under | 48c | 4,528$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…4d36backed Over | 52c | 3,122$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00cb…4558backed Over | 52c | 2,608$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…7e84backed Over | 52c | 2,564$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 2,090$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.29 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 1,383$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.87 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dc…2ef7backed Over | 52c | 1,321$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,011$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c86…a962backed Over | 52c | 874$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 813.57$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…7dd5backed Over | 52c | 762$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…62fdbacked Over | 52c | 599$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 397.21$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.74 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Over | 54c | 319.76$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.09 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 7c | 299.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 43c | 237.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 49c | 138.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Over | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 43c | 105.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 43c | 68.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3e…6a59backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…53d6backed Over | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9713…8219backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…957abacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…a405backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8e…34d8backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 43c | 28.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 230 | 51.3%118 W · 112 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…cce4backed Over | 57c | 21.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd412…a150backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Hornets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.