TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1. FC Kölnof FC Bayern München, 1. FC Köln
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,931 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked 1. FC Köln60c9,132$5,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,682.1778248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Köln68c5,455$3,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.053,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 1. FC Köln59c5,062$2,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.571,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef6…f9d4backed FC Bayern München40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked FC Bayern München40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed FC Bayern München39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.872458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed FC Bayern München40c2,497$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed 1. FC Köln76c2,233$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.8975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed 1. FC Köln62c1,876$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.922850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed 1. FC Köln59c1,770$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.4711056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked FC Bayern München26c1,604$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.147328.8%21 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed 1. FC Köln69c1,516$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked FC Bayern München38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed FC Bayern München31c1,431$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.691735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Bayern München21c1,407$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.632,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed 1. FC Köln62c1,116$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.211250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked FC Bayern München16c1,113$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.081040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked FC Bayern München40c1,100$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4402536%9 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed FC Bayern München5c1,071$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.552951.7%15 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+257.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8ed7…a295backed FC Bayern München39c1,050$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ca…5ed4backed FC Bayern München39c1,026$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked FC Bayern München31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3f…8425backed FC Bayern München39c980$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed 1. FC Köln61c932.78$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.7810553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed FC Bayern München39c873$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.4710945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed FC Bayern München31c755.99$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked FC Bayern München40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed 1. FC Köln60c699.99$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9916850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed FC Bayern München39c655$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.62437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked 1. FC Köln62c645.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.168846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed FC Bayern München5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…a29dbacked FC Bayern München39c553.1$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x410a…0060backed FC Bayern München30c501.32$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked 1. FC Köln73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1355974.6%44 W · 15 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed FC Bayern München38c500$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed 1. FC Köln60c420$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1688864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d65backed 1. FC Köln61c410$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked 1. FC Köln60c408.54$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.427062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked FC Bayern München5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b84…b8dabacked 1. FC Köln61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed 1. FC Köln64c399.99$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14433340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked FC Bayern München18c333.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed 1. FC Köln63c330.39$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.399243.5%40 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed 1. FC Köln61c320$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.81464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x170e…aa0dbacked FC Bayern München39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed FC Bayern München39c256$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.84785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick50cpaid+66.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2939…2e57backed 1. FC Köln61c253.17$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked FC Bayern München40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7abb…484fbacked 1. FC Köln61c240$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed FC Bayern München36c220.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.513748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b94…315bbacked FC Bayern München40c187.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed FC Bayern München38c178$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…1b9cbacked 1. FC Köln62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.292470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed 1. FC Köln60c160$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6411563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed FC Bayern München39c153.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed FC Bayern München39c153.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed FC Bayern München39c140.79$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked FC Bayern München39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-58.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed FC Bayern München40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked 1. FC Köln60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4813254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed FC Bayern München29c116.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1316542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x754f…6229backed FC Bayern München40c112.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked 1. FC Köln59c104.88$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked FC Bayern München39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac70…d0e7backed FC Bayern München39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked FC Bayern München41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf1e…2604backed FC Bayern München40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed 1. FC Köln60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4010454.8%57 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…298cbacked 1. FC Köln62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe32c…db1bbacked FC Bayern München35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed FC Bayern München36c82.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.886251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed 1. FC Köln62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.651566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked FC Bayern München39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked FC Bayern München40c76.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.715054%27 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f7…5bd7backed FC Bayern München40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed 1. FC Köln61c71.88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.035137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdeb4…9854backed FC Bayern München22c69.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Bayern München37c69.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.821,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed 1. FC Köln61c69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.91862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf838…86b2backed FC Bayern München31c67.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked 1. FC Köln61c67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.131573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0187…161cbacked 1. FC Köln76c66.67$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.68580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick79cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked FC Bayern München38c66.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed 1. FC Köln61c62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked FC Bayern München33c59.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.488946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e1c…a9a5backed 1. FC Köln62c56.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.453455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed FC Bayern München32c56.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.055433.3%18 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed FC Bayern München39c51.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked FC Bayern München40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed FC Bayern München40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06da…0a4abacked FC Bayern München40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed FC Bayern München40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked 1. FC Köln61c48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbd2…e8e8backed FC Bayern München37c41.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed FC Bayern München35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked FC Bayern München38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed FC Bayern München27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.694946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…9c04backed FC Bayern München39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked FC Bayern München39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.