TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$357,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$379,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,885 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Over44c163,282$71,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,777.91,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under69c42,308$29,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,199.793,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under61c24,577$14,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,615.5378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under52c24,458$12,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,633.622,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef4b…f8babacked Over0c20,226$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed Under70c14,634$10,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,372.742236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under63c9,524$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,523.821353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5f…4b52backed Under75c7,374$5,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.972871.4%20 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick76cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under72c5,599$4,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26a6…ff11backed Under71c5,083$3,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.761163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under66c4,853$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.2353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1407057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1406459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under61c2,981$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.41,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over39c2,866$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.1344749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under60c2,400$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97234144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d2…e29dbacked Over1c1,824$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.91361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over34c1,500$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5153452.9%18 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+85.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over37c1,355$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under62c1,270$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.69459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under62c1,200$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec8…397bbacked Over32c1,070$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.274143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Over28c1,019$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.497230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Over34c1,011$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.767328.8%21 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under54c1,000$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.2911056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked Over20c950.4$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.094040%16 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Under61c900$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35115024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Over37c892$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.0410945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Under61c819.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3048764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over31c689.44$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1810552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over32c607.87$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.526761.2%41 W · 26 L+13.8wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5754…9238backed Under65c561.65$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under64c525$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1895052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Under64c517.48$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.613644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Under63c510$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.71464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Under64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0209…a0dabacked Over36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-70.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over26c470.53$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3411955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under63c444$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2814364.3%92 W · 51 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under62c420$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.622854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under62c420$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.615454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under62c420$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.68864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x03ee…f7a7backed Under77c400.04$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.014100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15224258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under66c399.86$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.062763%17 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Under78c386.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.369451.1%48 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b6…896ebacked Under78c374$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.284100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under62c330$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.413957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under62c330$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.414355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc955…56adbacked Under66c324$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a5…398fbacked Under62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb900…1dfebacked Under64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11411860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11412162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Under62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Under64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1086053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1055974.6%44 W · 15 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked Under64c299.78$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.921353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over31c293.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.457962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Under70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7118958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over37c278.27$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0411857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x223e…fc48backed Under74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.27933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under64c262.04$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.691,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under62c260.99$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.248658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfdf6…773bbacked Over39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002157.1%12 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+75.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over24c252.44$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6638151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under62c250$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under62c250$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9512858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under62c250$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb343…61afbacked Over38c247.24$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Under60c239.66$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.561030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over13c236$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x230b…1e27backed Over37c225.88$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.58560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under62c220$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.612757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Under54c220$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.67335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Over36c214.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.76056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c10…829bbacked Under63c209$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.331384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+38.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Under62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7613256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Under62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under62c190$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.29659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3801…83ddbacked Over32c187.79$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.341250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.48261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.412356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over26c178.07$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4416542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Under62c173.36$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under62c170$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.611458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under62c170$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.66556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under62c170$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.613859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under62c170$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.611259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under62c170$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.612458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under62c170$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.66460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under62c170$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.612358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over37c165.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0511045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under62c164.6$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.455137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.811563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee54…5665backed Under63c155.05$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.371258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.